Catastrophic forecast by seismologists

The lives of nearly 5 million people will be at stake in the event of an earthquake in Istanbul. Nasci Gyorur, a geologist at Istanbul’s Technical University and a member of the Turkish Academy of Sciences, warned. The scientist stressed that urgent measures must be taken to minimize losses.

Györgyur made the statement for the Demiroren news agency after a 5.3 magnitude earthquake shook Bingöl in eastern Turkey on Friday and yesterday, a 4.3 magnitude earthquake shook neighboring Elazı.

He added that a possible earthquake could hit the Kyuchukcekmece district of Istanbul’s European country.

“The East Anatolian fault line starts from Karlova, in the Bingöl region and continues to southern Adana. The North Anatolian fault line also starts from Bingöl and continues to Istanbul. The Karlova zone is the place where these two fault lines meet, “Györur added.

 “Although the 5.3 magnitude earthquake hit this area, it was not specific to this fault. This happened on a parallel fault line, “he stressed, adding that fault lines could” transfer tension to each other “and could also trigger each other, indicating a risk to Istanbul, which is in northern Anatolia. fault line.

The expert stressed that now, even with “small earthquakes, some buildings crack and become uninhabitable. This shows that we are not ready for a big earthquake, which is expected very soon in Istanbul, “he added that 4 to 5 million people live in dangerous buildings in the metropolis.

 “Our Minister of Environment and Urbanization says that 200,000 buildings need to be reconstructed. If a risky building has four floors – this is the minimum – and each floor has two apartments, which is equivalent to eight apartments per building. If you multiply that number by 200,000, it equals 1.6 million apartments, and with an average of four people in a house, that means 4 to 5 million people are at risk, ”he added.

“Of course, not all of these 200,000 buildings will collapse in the event of an earthquake,” but that is still a significant risk, Gyorur concluded.

A team from the Istanbul municipality presented a report to the Turkish parliament in February on the consequences of a possible earthquake in the metropolis, revealing a catastrophic forecast.

The report was prepared jointly by the municipal municipalities of Avcalar and Esenler in Istanbul, where most emigrants from Bulgaria live, and was presented to the parliamentary earthquake committee. He revealed that at least 200,000 buildings would be damaged at a medium or high level in the event of an earthquake in Istanbul.

Istanbul, with a population of over 15 million, is the most populous city in Turkey and is at constant risk of earthquakes. Numerous studies show that the city will inevitably be hit by a powerful earthquake soon, and experts warn that it is not a question of “whether” but “when”.





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